Brexit - Hierachy of Concerns

We are modelling various aspects of Brexit, the UK's decision to leave the jurisdiction of the EU political union but to remain a strong friend and ally of all European sovereign nations.  So far we have developed ten models on various aspects of the debate. Our aim is to refine these models and then integrate them in order to find the 'root contradictions' at the heart of the Brexit debate. 

In this model we show examples of the concerns of both brexiteers and remainers at three levels: national level, business, and dailylife.  The model uses a grid, formally separated as 'aspect' and 'perspective'. Some relationships between them are shown.  Notice how, for many brexiteers, national issues take precedence over the disruption to daily life which the media continue to remind us is what is at stake. Largely, the remain camp is concerned with the status quo, continuity of 40 years of EU integration, something they take great pride in. 

Brexit - Hungary and EU Values

We are modelling various aspects of Brexit, the UK's decision to leave the jurisdiction of the EU political union but to remain a strong friend and ally of all European sovereign nations. 

In this 'literal' model we show a situation developing as a news story (September 2018). Is Hungary, an EU member, flouting EU values?

An MEP, a member of the GreenLeft party, has filed a 26 page report criticising Hungary and its elected leaders. A vote in the EP (European Parliament) has strongly supported the analysis by the author of the report, leading to sanctions against Hungary by the EU and further potential actions against Hungary's elected leaders. The model raises a number of issues of nation sovereignty. 

Brexit - Causes of indecision

We are modelling various aspects of Brexit, the UK's decision to leave the jurisdiction of the EU political union but to remain a strong friend and ally of all European sovereign nations.  

In this model we illustrate the many times the UK has been undecided about its membership of the EU and all that this implies and entails. The model suggests that this raises issues about the nature of UK politics. There may now be good reasons to leave the EU jurisdiction legally (given the way the EU has behaved during the UK 'negotiation' and the growing unease about the nature of the EU by other nations). The UK stance to the EU institutions, Brussels specifically, has historically been ambivalent at best and uncommitted at worst. Oddly, the UK helped shape much of the European Project and its treaties. Does this reflect a divide between the 'people' and the 'political class' ... sometimes called the 'elites' who 'know what's best for the people'. Has this been a cause of disconnect, a failure to take the people with them? What are the causes of the unease and indecision?

Brexit - Chequers and Politics

We are modelling various aspects of Brexit, the UK's decision to leave the jurisdiction of the EU political union but to remain a strong friend and ally of all European sovereign nations. 

As the EU-UK 'negotiation' (in reality nothing of the kind) moved to its final stages, the weak Conservative Party, developed a plan for exit that become known as 'The Chequers Plan', signifying that it was underwritten by all members of Cabinet. This was far from true. There were resignations and a lot of disquiet about the plan, which was a compromise solution that held little appeal for either Brexiteers or Remainers. The EU stated their opposition to the plan also. It was, however, the only 'plan' on the table. 

The model illustrates a theory of the author and does not purport to represent the truth. Since the plan tried to satisfy many camps, including the 'red lines' of the EU and the practical aspects of trade, commerce and customs, the question arises of how such a compromised plan came about. The model illustrates how UK democracy (Commons and Lords) has played a role in weakening the UK negotiating position by constantly questioning, and critiquing ANY plan put forward. This both exposed the UK's thinking to the EU who, seeing these divisions, does little but wait for the next version or idea to be put forward ... stating the unacceptability of the UK position in a way that spreads division and political disunity in the UK. As the plan became weaker (fudged and compromise) the model proposes that the EU may finally 'accept' it ... locking the UK into a difficult position for the future. 

It was against this background of trying to please all, but satisfy none, that the hard-line Brexiteer camp kept re-emerging. With only months left before final exit agreements are to be signed off, the UK now faces a difficult decision. It will be interesting to see which leader or party comes forward to take those decisions. 

The agent 'Sow division in UK' (highlighted above as a focus of concern) describes the EU's bureaucratic tactics during the Brexit negotiations. The fact that the UK had been forced to hold its deliberations (post-referendum) in the full light of the public gaze, has contributed to Brussels' ability to play this game well. The weak referendum result, coupled to the clear vested interests of certain UK-EU constituencies, contributed to the willingness of the UK PM to fudge and compromise. This weakness of response by the UK Parliament to the EU Bureaucrats lies at the heart of the concern about the current exit 'deal' by the so-called Brexiteers. 

Brexit - EU and UK levers in the negotiation

We are modelling various aspects of Brexit, the UK's decision to leave the jurisdiction of the EU political union but to remain a strong friend and ally of all European sovereign nations. In this model we show a grid separated 'by role': the EU and the UK. The levers (advantages useful, disadvantages harmful) that each side have are shown. As you can see, the EU has a lot of power. The UK position during the negotiations that followed the submission of Article 50 was considerably weakened by a change of Conservative Party leadership. 

Note the use of 'insufficiently useful' to denote the relatively inconclusive referendum result. 

This, and all other Brexit models in this blog, were drawn up during the final stages of negotiation as both sides started to come to terms with the reality of the situation.

Brexit - The core problem

We are modelling various aspects of Brexit, the UK's decision to leave the jurisdiction of the EU political union but to remain a strong friend and ally of all European sovereign nations. In this model we show the core of the problem: the EU contradiction .... useful benefits and also disadvantages for any sovereign nation, including the UK. 

The model illustrates a range of 'directions' for solutions (generated by Southbeach Modeller) as well as the essence of what 'brexiteers' want and what 'remainers' (sometimes called 'remoaners') want. 

Brexit - How we got here

We are modelling various aspects of Brexit, the UK's decision to leave the jurisdiction of the EU political union but to remain a strong friend and ally of all European sovereign nations. Here we use a typical TRIZ '9 boxes' template to show factors before, during and after the referendum. The role of the EU, UK and UK politics is shown. The model does not attempt to be complete. Combined with the other models of Brexit we have developed it adds to the picture by providing evidence for the debilitating arguments that took place after the vote, the UK being roughly split, 50/50, on the decision. 

Brexit - Life is emotional

We are modelling various aspects of Brexit, the UK's decision to leave the jurisdiction of the EU political union but to remain a strong friend and ally of all European sovereign nations. The referendum vote, we believe, distorted by emotional factors. In reality, the UK was leaving a legal system, not 'Europe' or collaboration with other nations and people. The 'EU' is a political union far beyond it's roots as a trading block. Increasing politicisation of the union was, in part, the reason the UK held a referendum. But having decided to hold one, a raft of emotional (non-legal, non-political) factors weighed in how people voted. Here will illustrate some of those factors.

The model is drawn from the perspective of those who voted to remain. The model is hypothetical of course and is not based on any survey or focus group. The topics were gathered from new stories that reflected the remain camp's viewpoint.

Brexit - Should we stay or should we go?

We are posting a series of models about Brexit, the UK's decision to leave the jurisdiction of the EU political union but to remain a strong friend and ally of all European sovereign nations. In this model, we attempt to illustrate the two very different mind sets of the 'remain' and 'leave' camps. An opposition between the two poles of the referendum vote deliberately separates the different concerns.  The effects show 'imagined' future consequences of remaining, and leaving.

The model has mixed perspective. On the right, we characterise the views of 'brexiteers' and 'remainers'.  Of course, all real world solutions to the stark choice of the UK people will necessarily mix and match the elements of the model. Life is complex ... but some fundamentals, such as sovereignty remain.

Brexit - A Remain Argument

Brexit, the UK's decision to leave the jurisdiction of the EU political union but to remain a strong friend and ally of all European sovereign nations, is a near-perfect topic for exploring Southbeach Notation and TRIZ problem solving. The notation's ability to represent all viewpoints, given that there are so many predictions of the effects of Brexit on both sides of the debate, is a powerful way to communicate arguments and point to possible solutions.

We have been playing with a variety of models of Brexit from both sides of the argument. In this model a possible 'Remain' argument is presented. The focus of the model is the inevitability of the connected world with the goal of creating economic benefit for all. Whether or not you personally believe the EU has achieved this is not the point. The model shows one argument for the UK to remain an influential member of the EU, from the perspective of trade and commerce.