Sunday, 14 March 2010

Exploring alternate theories - Global warming sceptics

(Click on the diagram for hi res)

Southbeach MyCreativity can be used to explore alternate theories of cause and effect. Here, four theories of the relationship between rising CO2 and rising mean temperatures are represented in Southbeach Notation. Simple rules are used to 'question' each model, with the following results, see below. Each set of output was generated by clicking once in the model, using these rules:

questionable(,) "Does {from} really produce {to}?"
potential "Does {this} exist?"
produces+not(,) "If {from} does not produce {to}, what else could be causing it?"
produces(,) "What is the process behind {from} producing {to}?"
harmful "What does {this} cause?"
harmful "What causes {this}?"

Here is the output from the model:
Theory1:
1. What does 'rising CO2' cause?
2. What causes 'rising CO2'?
3. Does 'rising CO2' really produce 'global warming'?
4. What is the process behind 'rising CO2' producing 'global warming'?
5. Does 'global warming' exist?
6. What does 'global warming' cause?
7. What causes 'global warming'?

Theory2:
1. What does 'rising CO2' cause?
2. What causes 'rising CO2'?
3. If 'rising CO2' does not produce 'global warning', what else could be causing it?
4. What does 'global warning' cause?
5. What causes 'global warning'?
6. What is the process behind 'hidden factor' producing 'global warning'?
7. Does 'hidden factor' exist?
8. What does 'hidden factor' cause?
9. What causes 'hidden factor'?

Theory3:
1. What does 'rising CO2' cause?
2. What causes 'rising CO2'?
3. What is the process behind 'hidden factor' producing 'rising CO2'?
4. Does 'hidden factor' exist?
5. What does 'hidden factor' cause?
6. What causes 'hidden factor'?
7. What is the process behind 'hidden factor' producing 'global warning'?
8. What does 'global warning' cause?
9. What causes 'global warning'?

Theory4:
1. What does 'rising CO2' cause?
2. What causes 'rising CO2'?
3. Does 'rising CO2' really produce 'global warming'?
4. What is the process behind 'rising CO2' producing 'global warming'?
5. What does 'global warming' cause?
6. What causes 'global warming'?
7. Does 'global warming' really produce 'rising CO2'?
8. What is the process behind 'global warming' producing 'rising CO2'?

Theory5:

1.   What does 'global warming' cause?
2.   What causes 'global warming'?
3.   What is the process behind 'hidden factor' producing 'global warming'?
4.   Does 'hidden factor' exist?
5.   What does 'hidden factor' cause?
6.   What causes 'hidden factor'?
7.   What is the process behind 'global warming' producing 'rising CO2'?
8.   What does 'rising CO2' cause?
9.   What causes 'rising CO2'?