Wednesday, 5 September 2018

Brexit - Chequers and Politics

We are modelling various aspects of Brexit, the UK's decision to leave the jurisdiction of the EU political union but to remain a strong friend and ally of all European sovereign nations. 

As the EU-UK 'negotiation' (in reality nothing of the kind) moved to its final stages, the weak Conservative Party, developed a plan for exit that become known as 'The Chequers Plan', signifying that it was underwritten by all members of Cabinet. This was far from true. There were resignations and a lot of disquiet about the plan, which was a compromise solution that held little appeal for either Brexiteers or Remainers. The EU stated their opposition to the plan also. It was, however, the only 'plan' on the table. 

The model illustrates a theory of the author and does not purport to represent the truth. Since the plan tried to satisfy many camps, including the 'red lines' of the EU and the practical aspects of trade, commerce and customs, the question arises of how such a compromised plan came about. The model illustrates how UK democracy (Commons and Lords) has played a role in weakening the UK negotiating position by constantly questioning, and critiquing ANY plan put forward. This both exposed the UK's thinking to the EU who, seeing these divisions, does little but wait for the next version or idea to be put forward ... stating the unacceptability of the UK position in a way that spreads division and political disunity in the UK. As the plan became weaker (fudged and compromise) the model proposes that the EU may finally 'accept' it ... locking the UK into a difficult position for the future. 

It was against this background of trying to please all, but satisfy none, that the hard-line Brexiteer camp kept re-emerging. With only months left before final exit agreements are to be signed off, the UK now faces a difficult decision. It will be interesting to see which leader or party comes forward to take those decisions. 

The agent 'Sow division in UK' (highlighted above as a focus of concern) describes the EU's bureaucratic tactics during the Brexit negotiations. The fact that the UK had been forced to hold its deliberations (post-referendum) in the full light of the public gaze, has contributed to Brussels' ability to play this game well. The weak referendum result, coupled to the clear vested interests of certain UK-EU constituencies, contributed to the willingness of the UK PM to fudge and compromise. This weakness of response by the UK Parliament to the EU Bureaucrats lies at the heart of the concern about the current exit 'deal' by the so-called Brexiteers. 

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