Situation Improvement

This example Southbeach Notation model shows how circumstances may help or hinder improvement activities designed to take you from a harmful current state to a useful target state.

This model already shows 8 factors to consider when planning the improvement activity as well as a further 5 factors that should be considered when creating and managing the newly achieved target state.

Whilst this model is general, it can be used as a template or a structured brainstorming aid to create a model that is more specific to your particular situation. Just replace agents like Risk with your actual risks, or add them as productions from the Risk agent.

The effects give some clues about how to improve the situation - whilst failures due to the current situation are obviously harmful, they are useful in creating the case for action. Whilst successes of the current situation are obviously useful, they have the harmful side effect that they counteract the desire to take action and start the improvement activity. Barriers and constraints obviously need to be removed, and risks avoided... we must try and ensure the benefits of the target state can actually be realised...

However, there are many many more creativity paths that can be generated from such a model. Southbeach MyCreativity provides the means to write rules that the modeller can then use to generate creativity output.

Here is some example creativity output generated against this model:

Setting the modeller extent to laser (to just run the rules on what you click on), and clicking on Target State could generate something like this:

1. What else is needed to achieve Target State? What are the pre-requisites or necessary pre-steps?
2. How can we realise the Target State more quickly?
3. How can you create the Benefits of change without the Improvement Activity?
4. How can you create the Sustainable improvement without the Improvement Activity?
5. How can you get the Target State to intensify the Benefits of change without causing the Unforeseen side effects?
6. How can you get the Target State to intensify the Sustainable improvement without causing the Unforeseen side effects?

Whereas an extent of narrow (runs rules on the agents and surrounding effects) when clicking on Constraints might produce something like this:

1. What's the root cause of Constraints? How can we avoid that?
2. Prevent the Constraints from impacting the Improvement Activity.
3. Isolate the part of the Constraints that is impacting the Improvement Activity and remove it.
4. Convert the Constraints into something useful before it has a chance to impact the Improvement Activity
5. Protect the Improvement Activity from the Constraints.
6. How can you prevent the Constraints from producing the Compromises.
7. Put measures in place to deal with the Compromises.
8. Isolate the part of the Constraints that is producing the Compromises and remove it.

Setting the extent to widest (run on everything)... could generate an enormous number of suggestions:
Note that each of these suggestions is different. Some are very different. Some are subtly different, for example protecting something useful from harm is different to reducing the amount of harm; Increasing the amount of something useful is different to improving the ability of something else to create that useful thing (because there could be alternative ways)...

1. How can you get the Improvement Activity to intensify the Target State without causing the Risks?
2. How can you get more of Improvement Activity from Current State?
3. How can you increase the ability of Current State to create Improvement Activity?
4. How can you intensify the Improvement Activity without relying on the Current State?
5. Try and work out what part of the Current State is producing the Improvement Activity and minimise the unnecessary parts that are producing the harm
6. How can you get the Current State to intensify the Successes without causing the Failures due to current situation?
7. How can you get more of Successes from Current State?
8. How can you increase the ability of Current State to create Successes?
9. How can you intensify the Successes without relying on the Current State?
10. Try and work out what part of the Current State is producing the Successes and minimise the unnecessary parts that are producing the harm
11. Prevent the Successes from impacting the Improvement Activity.
12. Find ways for Improvement Activity to make more use of Current State
13. What's the root cause of Current State? How can we avoid that?
14. Ensure the Target State also leads to Improvement Activity before the Current State is replaced
15. Ensure the Target State also leads to Successes before the Current State is replaced
16. How can you get the Current State to intensify the Improvement Activity without causing the Failures due to current situation?
17. Isolate the part of the Successes that is impacting the Improvement Activity and remove it.
18. Protect the Improvement Activity from the Successes.
19. How can you prevent the Current State from producing the Failures due to current situation.
20. Put measures in place to deal with the Failures due to current situation.
21. Isolate the part of the Current State that is producing the Failures due to current situation and remove it.
22. What's the root cause of Failures due to current situation? How can we avoid that?
23. How can you intensify the Improvement Activity without the Current State?
24. How can you get more of Improvement Activity from Failures due to current situation?
25. How can you increase the ability of Failures due to current situation to create Improvement Activity?
26. How can you intensify the Improvement Activity without relying on the Failures due to current situation?
27. Try and work out what part of the Failures due to current situation is producing the Improvement Activity and minimise the unnecessary parts that are producing the harm
28. What else is needed to achieve Target State? What are the pre-requisites or necessary pre-steps?
29. How can we realise the Target State more quickly?
30. How can you create the Benefits of change without the Improvement Activity?
31. How can you create the Sustainable improvement without the Improvement Activity?
32. How can you get the Target State to intensify the Benefits of change without causing the Unforeseen side effects?
33. How can you get the Target State to intensify the Sustainable improvement without causing the Unforeseen side effects?
34. Intensify or get more of the Improvement Activity so you can have more of the Target State.
35. How can you get more of Target State from Improvement Activity?
36. How can you increase the ability of Improvement Activity to create Target State?
37. How can you intensify the Target State without relying on the Improvement Activity?
38. How can you ensure that the Target State will be an outcome of the Improvement Activity?
39. Intensify or get more of the Target State so you can have more of the Benefits of change.
40. How can you get more of Benefits of change from Target State?
41. How can you increase the ability of Target State to create Benefits of change?
42. How can you intensify the Benefits of change without relying on the Target State?
43. How can you ensure that the Benefits of change will be an outcome of the Target State?
44. How can we realise the Benefits of change more quickly?
45. Prevent the Issues from impacting the Benefits of change.
46. Isolate the part of the Issues that is impacting the Benefits of change and remove it.
47. Convert the Issues into something useful before it has a chance to impact the Benefits of change
48. Protect the Benefits of change from the Issues.
49. How can the proportion of the Issues impacting the Benefits of change be reduced?
50. What's the root cause of Issues? How can we avoid that?
51. How can we avoid, prevent, or delay the Issues?
52. How can you prevent the Risks from producing the Issues.
53. Put measures in place to deal with the Issues.
54. Isolate the part of the Risks that is producing the Issues and remove it.
55. What's the root cause of Risks? How can we avoid that?
56. How can we avoid, prevent, or delay the Risks?
57. How can you prevent the Improvement Activity from producing the Risks.
58. Put measures in place to deal with the Risks.
59. Isolate the part of the Improvement Activity that is producing the Risks and remove it.
60. How else could the Improvement Activity be accomplished that would not result in the Risks?
61. What else could give the benefits of the Improvement Activity that would not result in the Risks?
62. Prevent the Issues from impacting the Sustainable improvement.
63. Isolate the part of the Issues that is impacting the Sustainable improvement and remove it.
64. Convert the Issues into something useful before it has a chance to impact the Sustainable improvement
65. Protect the Sustainable improvement from the Issues.
66. How can we realise the Sustainable improvement more quickly?
67. Intensify or get more of the Target State so you can have more of the Sustainable improvement.
68. How can you get more of Sustainable improvement from Target State?
69. How can you increase the ability of Target State to create Sustainable improvement?
70. How can you intensify the Sustainable improvement without relying on the Target State?
71. How can you ensure that the Sustainable improvement will be an outcome of the Target State?
72. Prevent the Compromises from impacting the Sustainable improvement.
73. Isolate the part of the Compromises that is impacting the Sustainable improvement and remove it.
74. Convert the Compromises into something useful before it has a chance to impact the Sustainable improvement
75. Protect the Sustainable improvement from the Compromises.
76. What's the root cause of Compromises? How can we avoid that?
77. How can we avoid, prevent, or delay the Compromises?
78. How can you prevent the Constraints from producing the Compromises.
79. Put measures in place to deal with the Compromises.
80. Isolate the part of the Constraints that is producing the Compromises and remove it.
81. What's the root cause of Constraints? How can we avoid that?
82. Prevent the Constraints from impacting the Improvement Activity.
83. Isolate the part of the Constraints that is impacting the Improvement Activity and remove it.
84. Convert the Constraints into something useful before it has a chance to impact the Improvement Activity
85. Protect the Improvement Activity from the Constraints.
86. How can you prevent the Compromises from producing the Unforeseen side effects.
87. Put measures in place to deal with the Unforeseen side effects.
88. Isolate the part of the Compromises that is producing the Unforeseen side effects and remove it.
89. What's the root cause of Unforeseen side effects? How can we avoid that?
90. How can we avoid, prevent, or delay the Unforeseen side effects?
91. How can you prevent the Target State from producing the Unforeseen side effects.
92. Isolate the part of the Target State that is producing the Unforeseen side effects and remove it.
93. How else could the Target State be accomplished that would not result in the Unforeseen side effects?
94. What else could give the benefits of the Target State that would not result in the Unforeseen side effects?
95. Prevent the Barriers from impacting the Improvement Activity.
96. Isolate the part of the Barriers that is impacting the Improvement Activity and remove it.
97. Convert the Barriers into something useful before it has a chance to impact the Improvement Activity
98. Protect the Improvement Activity from the Barriers.
99. What's the root cause of Barriers? How can we avoid that?
100. Intensify or get more of the Enablers so you can have more of the Improvement Activity.
101. How can you get more of Improvement Activity from Enablers?
102. How can you increase the ability of Enablers to create Improvement Activity?
103. How can you intensify the Improvement Activity without relying on the Enablers?
104. Intensify or get more of the Resources so you can have more of the Improvement Activity.
105. How can you get more of Improvement Activity from Resources?
106. How can you increase the ability of Resources to create Improvement Activity?
107. How can you intensify the Improvement Activity without relying on the Resources?
108. Intensify or get more of the Compelling Events so you can have more of the Improvement Activity.
109. How can you get more of Improvement Activity from Compelling Events?
110. How can you increase the ability of Compelling Events to create Improvement Activity?
111. How can you intensify the Improvement Activity without relying on the Compelling Events?
112. How can you create the Target State without the Current State?
113. How can you create the Target State without the Enablers?
114. How can you create the Target State without the Resources?
115. How can you create the Target State without the Compelling Events?
116. How can you create the Target State without the Failures due to current situation?
117. Find ways for Improvement Activity to make more use of Resources
118. Find ways for Successes to make more use of Current State
119. Find ways for Improvement Activity to make more use of Enablers
120. Find ways for Improvement Activity to make more use of Compelling Events
121. Find ways for Improvement Activity to make more use of Improvement Activity
122. Find ways for Target State to make more use of Improvement Activity
123. How can the proportion of the Compromises impacting the Sustainable improvement be reduced?
124. Find ways for Benefits of change to make more use of Target State
125. Find ways for Target State to make more use of Target State
126. Find ways for Improvement Activity to make more use of Constraints
127. Find ways for Sustainable improvement to make more use of Target State


Here are the MyCreativity rules that generated this output:

#Improve.IncreaseUseful
increases(useful,useful) "Intensify or get more of the {source} so you can have more of the {destination}."
increases(*,useful) "How can you get more of {destination} from {source}?"
increases(*,useful) "How can you increase the ability of {source} to create {destination}?"
increases(*,useful) "How can you intensify the {destination} without relying on the {source}?"
increases(harmful,useful) "Try and work out what part of the {source} is producing the {destination} and minimise the unnecessary parts that are producing the harm"
decreases(*,useful) "Prevent the {source} from impacting the {destination}."
decreases(*,useful) "Isolate the part of the {source} that is impacting the {destination} and remove it."
decreases(harmful,useful) "Convert the {source} into something useful before it has a chance to impact the {destination}"
decreases(*,useful) "Protect the {destination} from the {source}."
increases(useful,useful+potential) "How can you ensure that the {destination} will be an outcome of the {source}?"
increases(&a=*,&c=useful+potential) increases(&b=*,&a) "How can you create the {&c} without the {&b}?"
increases(&a=*,&c=useful+!potential) increases(&b=*,&a) "How can you intensify the {&c} without the {&b}?"
useful+goal "What else is needed to achieve {this}? What are the pre-requisites or necessary pre-steps?"
harmful "What's the root cause of {this}? How can we avoid that?"
useful+potential "How can we realise the {this} more quickly?"
harmful+potential "How can we avoid, prevent, or delay the {this}?"
replaces(&a=*,&b=*) increases(&b,&c=useful) "Ensure the {&a} also leads to {&c} before the {&b} is replaced"
increases(&a=*,&b=useful) "Find ways for {&b} to make more use of {&a}"
#Improve.ReduceHarmful
increases(*,harmful) "How can you prevent the {source} from producing the {destination}."
increases(*,harmful) "Put measures in place to deal with the {destination}."
increases(*,harmful) "Isolate the part of the {source} that is producing the {destination} and remove it."
increases(useful,harmful) "How else could the {source} be accomplished that would not result in the {destination}?"
increases(useful,harmful) "What else could give the benefits of the {source} that would not result in the {destination}?"
decreases+potential(&a=*,&b=useful) "How can the proportion of the {&a} impacting the {&b} be reduced?"
#Improve.Simplify
increases(&a=*,&b=useful) increases(&a,&c=harmful) "How can you get the {&a} to intensify the {&b} without causing the {&c}?"

Managing Enabling Technology

This Southbeach model shows an impact analysis for using Technology in business. Reading from bottom left (Technology) to top right (Increasing Profit), we can see a chain of useful and harmful effects as the intended results of automation and combining information in new ways to create new capabilities and business oportunities have their shadow harmful consequences of loss of control, information overload, and increasing cost and complexity resulting in risk of technology outages.

There is a significant management overhead for all enabling technologies. Additional risk management erodes away profits still further, whilst the use of technologies like Business Intelligence to find correlations in market indicators through data mining and provision of multi-level active drill-down reports for management to make sense of the increasing information overload permits evidence based decision making at the highest level in the organisation.

New business opportunities are identified and this often results in yet more technology to overcome the limitations of previous IT systems, and restore control to the business so that opportunities can be properly exploited.

This represents an interlocking of two evolutionary systems in an organisation; the business, and the Information Technology. They enable each other. The boundaries become blurred with time, and the politics of deciding which side of the fence to pitch your tent increase as the cycle of improvement on one side amplifies the other, and technology and business change fall out of sync resulting in solutions that were intended for one purpose being used for another, or investment being targetted at exploitation of existing technology beyond its capacity to support the growth in demand from the business.

Managing enabling technology requires a thorough understanding of both the business and the Technology, and a foot in both camps. In today's world, neither can exist without the other; Building value with business-led inovation requires a supporting culture in the people and a collaboration rooted in relationships built on trust.

Climbing the Wall of Worry

"Wall of Worry" is a phrase used to describe a bullish market trend occurring in the face of negative uncertainties. Risks that have been realised in the market lead to investors thinking that things can only get better - it creates a buying opportunity that through prices rising leads to profit. However, once the risks are resolved, this destroys the wall of worry, causing prices to fall back to their natural level.

This tension between rising and falling prices is explored in more detail in the following model (click to enlarge).

The above Southbeach model shows the tension between rational and emotional behaviour in the investment markets along with their causes and effects. This is a complex situation involving multiple feedback loops that essentially creates a self sustaining system that oscillates between stability and instability as rationality and experience struggle to win out over greed, fear, and emotional behaviour.

Central to this model is a self-sustaining feedback loop of irrational investing resulting in volatility in the market that produces negative feedback causing further irrational, or short term, investing. In the centre of this triumvirate of effects is greed and fear, which perpetuate the situation by creating more emotional behaviour that creates even more volatility in the market, and destroying rational behaviour, which is insufficiently counteracting the negative feedback loop that is creating a "vortex of misery" in the market. This vortex of misery is characterised by the interplay between speculators that are in adulation at the profits they are making on their short sells and the rational investors with their more conventional practice of going long, who become excluded by those seeking to perpetuate the bubble. Eventually this vortex creates a tipping point (the point at which the bubble bursts). As this MarketWatch article explains, 'For those trying to take the pulse of the market, the size of the proverbial "wall of worry" can mean the difference between a correction and a change in trend'. As Charles Mackay, in his 'Memoirs of Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds' wrote almost 200 years ago, 'men go mad in crowds but come to their senses slowly, and one by one'; The change in trend is a tipping point in the market, which in this model creates a return to sanity that removes the speculators and emotional behaviour from the game, restoring rational behaviour and adding to experience that in turn hones instinct to return the market to a positive investing cycle based on an understanding of the emotional factors that led to the original volatility and downward spiral.

At the root of this repeating cycle in the market is a causal chain shown below. In this Southbeach model, the same chain of causes and effects is shown from two perspectives. In both cases, complacency leads to emotional distortion which leads to a market bubble that increases the emotional distortion further, increasing the size of the market bubble... and so on, until the tipping point is reached and the inevitable market collapse ensues. As the market is collapsing, this leads to realisations that further feed the collapse, finally once the market has returned to 'normal', complacency sets in once again and the cycle repeats. In the model on the left, the Speculators perspective, this market bubble is seen as a good thing as it creates an opportunity to create wealth through short selling, the market collapse being harmful to them both due to the stocks they purchased at inflated prices, and due to the lost ability to short-sell and make short term profits. The rational investor, on the other hand, has exactly the opposite perspective - the reality is the same; the causes and effects play out in exactly the same way, they simply see the bubble as harmful as it destabilises the market and the collapse as useful as it marks a return to normality.

This series of Southbeach models was created by Jason McIntosh, a sales trader at Nomura and Mark Burnett, a management consultant at BearingPoint.

Risk Management

This Southbeach model shows some general principles of risk management. In this example, Work is the focus and is done in order to achieve the Goal. Issues and Risks may counteract achievement of the goal. Some risks may turn into issues and require significantly more effort to resolve if they are not addressed early. Risk mitigation is a useful activity and counteracts the risks and also reduces the diversion of resources that results from dealing with issues.

The following Southbeach model provides a more detailed example of risk management in action with the addition of a grid to separate the agents in the model by timespan and aspect. This simplistic yet realistic model shows how Southbeach can be used to assess the potential impact of issues and risks and how to mitigate against them.

This example shows swim lanes running across the page separating different aspects of a project into meetings, activities, Issues & risks, and mitigations. The columns represent months in the project plan. The project status meeting in October identified the issue that there are "more problems with the solution than expected". This model was then created to perform an impact analysis and create a risk mitigation plan.

The focus of this model is "delivery of phase 1 of the solution". The goal is "sign-off for phase 2". The ultimate delivery of phase 2 and realisation of benefits, the ultimate goal, are counteracted by lack of adoption of the solution, which has various root causes such as lack of understanding and lack of awareness. These are counteracted by different parts of the change management plan.