Situation Improvement

This example Southbeach Notation model shows how circumstances may help or hinder improvement activities designed to take you from a harmful current state to a useful target state.

This model already shows 8 factors to consider when planning the improvement activity as well as a further 5 factors that should be considered when creating and managing the newly achieved target state.

Whilst this model is general, it can be used as a template or a structured brainstorming aid to create a model that is more specific to your particular situation. Just replace agents like Risk with your actual risks, or add them as productions from the Risk agent.

The effects give some clues about how to improve the situation - whilst failures due to the current situation are obviously harmful, they are useful in creating the case for action. Whilst successes of the current situation are obviously useful, they have the harmful side effect that they counteract the desire to take action and start the improvement activity. Barriers and constraints obviously need to be removed, and risks avoided... we must try and ensure the benefits of the target state can actually be realised...

However, there are many many more creativity paths that can be generated from such a model. Southbeach MyCreativity provides the means to write rules that the modeller can then use to generate creativity output.

Here is some example creativity output generated against this model:

Setting the modeller extent to laser (to just run the rules on what you click on), and clicking on Target State could generate something like this:

1. What else is needed to achieve Target State? What are the pre-requisites or necessary pre-steps?
2. How can we realise the Target State more quickly?
3. How can you create the Benefits of change without the Improvement Activity?
4. How can you create the Sustainable improvement without the Improvement Activity?
5. How can you get the Target State to intensify the Benefits of change without causing the Unforeseen side effects?
6. How can you get the Target State to intensify the Sustainable improvement without causing the Unforeseen side effects?

Whereas an extent of narrow (runs rules on the agents and surrounding effects) when clicking on Constraints might produce something like this:

1. What's the root cause of Constraints? How can we avoid that?
2. Prevent the Constraints from impacting the Improvement Activity.
3. Isolate the part of the Constraints that is impacting the Improvement Activity and remove it.
4. Convert the Constraints into something useful before it has a chance to impact the Improvement Activity
5. Protect the Improvement Activity from the Constraints.
6. How can you prevent the Constraints from producing the Compromises.
7. Put measures in place to deal with the Compromises.
8. Isolate the part of the Constraints that is producing the Compromises and remove it.

Setting the extent to widest (run on everything)... could generate an enormous number of suggestions:
Note that each of these suggestions is different. Some are very different. Some are subtly different, for example protecting something useful from harm is different to reducing the amount of harm; Increasing the amount of something useful is different to improving the ability of something else to create that useful thing (because there could be alternative ways)...

1. How can you get the Improvement Activity to intensify the Target State without causing the Risks?
2. How can you get more of Improvement Activity from Current State?
3. How can you increase the ability of Current State to create Improvement Activity?
4. How can you intensify the Improvement Activity without relying on the Current State?
5. Try and work out what part of the Current State is producing the Improvement Activity and minimise the unnecessary parts that are producing the harm
6. How can you get the Current State to intensify the Successes without causing the Failures due to current situation?
7. How can you get more of Successes from Current State?
8. How can you increase the ability of Current State to create Successes?
9. How can you intensify the Successes without relying on the Current State?
10. Try and work out what part of the Current State is producing the Successes and minimise the unnecessary parts that are producing the harm
11. Prevent the Successes from impacting the Improvement Activity.
12. Find ways for Improvement Activity to make more use of Current State
13. What's the root cause of Current State? How can we avoid that?
14. Ensure the Target State also leads to Improvement Activity before the Current State is replaced
15. Ensure the Target State also leads to Successes before the Current State is replaced
16. How can you get the Current State to intensify the Improvement Activity without causing the Failures due to current situation?
17. Isolate the part of the Successes that is impacting the Improvement Activity and remove it.
18. Protect the Improvement Activity from the Successes.
19. How can you prevent the Current State from producing the Failures due to current situation.
20. Put measures in place to deal with the Failures due to current situation.
21. Isolate the part of the Current State that is producing the Failures due to current situation and remove it.
22. What's the root cause of Failures due to current situation? How can we avoid that?
23. How can you intensify the Improvement Activity without the Current State?
24. How can you get more of Improvement Activity from Failures due to current situation?
25. How can you increase the ability of Failures due to current situation to create Improvement Activity?
26. How can you intensify the Improvement Activity without relying on the Failures due to current situation?
27. Try and work out what part of the Failures due to current situation is producing the Improvement Activity and minimise the unnecessary parts that are producing the harm
28. What else is needed to achieve Target State? What are the pre-requisites or necessary pre-steps?
29. How can we realise the Target State more quickly?
30. How can you create the Benefits of change without the Improvement Activity?
31. How can you create the Sustainable improvement without the Improvement Activity?
32. How can you get the Target State to intensify the Benefits of change without causing the Unforeseen side effects?
33. How can you get the Target State to intensify the Sustainable improvement without causing the Unforeseen side effects?
34. Intensify or get more of the Improvement Activity so you can have more of the Target State.
35. How can you get more of Target State from Improvement Activity?
36. How can you increase the ability of Improvement Activity to create Target State?
37. How can you intensify the Target State without relying on the Improvement Activity?
38. How can you ensure that the Target State will be an outcome of the Improvement Activity?
39. Intensify or get more of the Target State so you can have more of the Benefits of change.
40. How can you get more of Benefits of change from Target State?
41. How can you increase the ability of Target State to create Benefits of change?
42. How can you intensify the Benefits of change without relying on the Target State?
43. How can you ensure that the Benefits of change will be an outcome of the Target State?
44. How can we realise the Benefits of change more quickly?
45. Prevent the Issues from impacting the Benefits of change.
46. Isolate the part of the Issues that is impacting the Benefits of change and remove it.
47. Convert the Issues into something useful before it has a chance to impact the Benefits of change
48. Protect the Benefits of change from the Issues.
49. How can the proportion of the Issues impacting the Benefits of change be reduced?
50. What's the root cause of Issues? How can we avoid that?
51. How can we avoid, prevent, or delay the Issues?
52. How can you prevent the Risks from producing the Issues.
53. Put measures in place to deal with the Issues.
54. Isolate the part of the Risks that is producing the Issues and remove it.
55. What's the root cause of Risks? How can we avoid that?
56. How can we avoid, prevent, or delay the Risks?
57. How can you prevent the Improvement Activity from producing the Risks.
58. Put measures in place to deal with the Risks.
59. Isolate the part of the Improvement Activity that is producing the Risks and remove it.
60. How else could the Improvement Activity be accomplished that would not result in the Risks?
61. What else could give the benefits of the Improvement Activity that would not result in the Risks?
62. Prevent the Issues from impacting the Sustainable improvement.
63. Isolate the part of the Issues that is impacting the Sustainable improvement and remove it.
64. Convert the Issues into something useful before it has a chance to impact the Sustainable improvement
65. Protect the Sustainable improvement from the Issues.
66. How can we realise the Sustainable improvement more quickly?
67. Intensify or get more of the Target State so you can have more of the Sustainable improvement.
68. How can you get more of Sustainable improvement from Target State?
69. How can you increase the ability of Target State to create Sustainable improvement?
70. How can you intensify the Sustainable improvement without relying on the Target State?
71. How can you ensure that the Sustainable improvement will be an outcome of the Target State?
72. Prevent the Compromises from impacting the Sustainable improvement.
73. Isolate the part of the Compromises that is impacting the Sustainable improvement and remove it.
74. Convert the Compromises into something useful before it has a chance to impact the Sustainable improvement
75. Protect the Sustainable improvement from the Compromises.
76. What's the root cause of Compromises? How can we avoid that?
77. How can we avoid, prevent, or delay the Compromises?
78. How can you prevent the Constraints from producing the Compromises.
79. Put measures in place to deal with the Compromises.
80. Isolate the part of the Constraints that is producing the Compromises and remove it.
81. What's the root cause of Constraints? How can we avoid that?
82. Prevent the Constraints from impacting the Improvement Activity.
83. Isolate the part of the Constraints that is impacting the Improvement Activity and remove it.
84. Convert the Constraints into something useful before it has a chance to impact the Improvement Activity
85. Protect the Improvement Activity from the Constraints.
86. How can you prevent the Compromises from producing the Unforeseen side effects.
87. Put measures in place to deal with the Unforeseen side effects.
88. Isolate the part of the Compromises that is producing the Unforeseen side effects and remove it.
89. What's the root cause of Unforeseen side effects? How can we avoid that?
90. How can we avoid, prevent, or delay the Unforeseen side effects?
91. How can you prevent the Target State from producing the Unforeseen side effects.
92. Isolate the part of the Target State that is producing the Unforeseen side effects and remove it.
93. How else could the Target State be accomplished that would not result in the Unforeseen side effects?
94. What else could give the benefits of the Target State that would not result in the Unforeseen side effects?
95. Prevent the Barriers from impacting the Improvement Activity.
96. Isolate the part of the Barriers that is impacting the Improvement Activity and remove it.
97. Convert the Barriers into something useful before it has a chance to impact the Improvement Activity
98. Protect the Improvement Activity from the Barriers.
99. What's the root cause of Barriers? How can we avoid that?
100. Intensify or get more of the Enablers so you can have more of the Improvement Activity.
101. How can you get more of Improvement Activity from Enablers?
102. How can you increase the ability of Enablers to create Improvement Activity?
103. How can you intensify the Improvement Activity without relying on the Enablers?
104. Intensify or get more of the Resources so you can have more of the Improvement Activity.
105. How can you get more of Improvement Activity from Resources?
106. How can you increase the ability of Resources to create Improvement Activity?
107. How can you intensify the Improvement Activity without relying on the Resources?
108. Intensify or get more of the Compelling Events so you can have more of the Improvement Activity.
109. How can you get more of Improvement Activity from Compelling Events?
110. How can you increase the ability of Compelling Events to create Improvement Activity?
111. How can you intensify the Improvement Activity without relying on the Compelling Events?
112. How can you create the Target State without the Current State?
113. How can you create the Target State without the Enablers?
114. How can you create the Target State without the Resources?
115. How can you create the Target State without the Compelling Events?
116. How can you create the Target State without the Failures due to current situation?
117. Find ways for Improvement Activity to make more use of Resources
118. Find ways for Successes to make more use of Current State
119. Find ways for Improvement Activity to make more use of Enablers
120. Find ways for Improvement Activity to make more use of Compelling Events
121. Find ways for Improvement Activity to make more use of Improvement Activity
122. Find ways for Target State to make more use of Improvement Activity
123. How can the proportion of the Compromises impacting the Sustainable improvement be reduced?
124. Find ways for Benefits of change to make more use of Target State
125. Find ways for Target State to make more use of Target State
126. Find ways for Improvement Activity to make more use of Constraints
127. Find ways for Sustainable improvement to make more use of Target State


Here are the MyCreativity rules that generated this output:

#Improve.IncreaseUseful
increases(useful,useful) "Intensify or get more of the {source} so you can have more of the {destination}."
increases(*,useful) "How can you get more of {destination} from {source}?"
increases(*,useful) "How can you increase the ability of {source} to create {destination}?"
increases(*,useful) "How can you intensify the {destination} without relying on the {source}?"
increases(harmful,useful) "Try and work out what part of the {source} is producing the {destination} and minimise the unnecessary parts that are producing the harm"
decreases(*,useful) "Prevent the {source} from impacting the {destination}."
decreases(*,useful) "Isolate the part of the {source} that is impacting the {destination} and remove it."
decreases(harmful,useful) "Convert the {source} into something useful before it has a chance to impact the {destination}"
decreases(*,useful) "Protect the {destination} from the {source}."
increases(useful,useful+potential) "How can you ensure that the {destination} will be an outcome of the {source}?"
increases(&a=*,&c=useful+potential) increases(&b=*,&a) "How can you create the {&c} without the {&b}?"
increases(&a=*,&c=useful+!potential) increases(&b=*,&a) "How can you intensify the {&c} without the {&b}?"
useful+goal "What else is needed to achieve {this}? What are the pre-requisites or necessary pre-steps?"
harmful "What's the root cause of {this}? How can we avoid that?"
useful+potential "How can we realise the {this} more quickly?"
harmful+potential "How can we avoid, prevent, or delay the {this}?"
replaces(&a=*,&b=*) increases(&b,&c=useful) "Ensure the {&a} also leads to {&c} before the {&b} is replaced"
increases(&a=*,&b=useful) "Find ways for {&b} to make more use of {&a}"
#Improve.ReduceHarmful
increases(*,harmful) "How can you prevent the {source} from producing the {destination}."
increases(*,harmful) "Put measures in place to deal with the {destination}."
increases(*,harmful) "Isolate the part of the {source} that is producing the {destination} and remove it."
increases(useful,harmful) "How else could the {source} be accomplished that would not result in the {destination}?"
increases(useful,harmful) "What else could give the benefits of the {source} that would not result in the {destination}?"
decreases+potential(&a=*,&b=useful) "How can the proportion of the {&a} impacting the {&b} be reduced?"
#Improve.Simplify
increases(&a=*,&b=useful) increases(&a,&c=harmful) "How can you get the {&a} to intensify the {&b} without causing the {&c}?"

Creating TOGAF Checklists with Southbeach MyCreativity

This Southbeach Notation model shows the phases of the The Open Group Architecture Foundation (TOGAF) Architecture Development Method (ADM). Reference: www.togaf.org


The method defines the inputs, steps, and outputs of each phase of the cycle:

A. Architecture Vision
B. Business Architecture
C. Information Systems Architectures
D. Technology Architecture
E. Opportunities and Solutions
F. Migration Planning
G. Implementation Governance
H. Architecture Change Management
Requirements Management

Some of these have been shown on the extended model below, with inputs shown as blue boxes, or activities that contribute to the phase, steps of the phase itself are shown as productions (arrows) out of the phase and outputs, or artifacts created by the phase, are shown using the created effect (star). Here we show the steps of phase A above that phase, with the inputs to the left, broken down hierarchically as defined in TOGAF, and the outputs to the right. We also show the inputs to phase B, business architecture similarly broken down.

Using the MyCreativity add on to the Southbeach Modeller, it is now possible to write rules that refer to the model and generate output. You will see how the rules below for the different effect types correspond to the appropriate output; anything that contributesto the phase you click on is listed as an input, anything that phase produces is listed as a step, and anything that is created by that phase, is listed as an output. Note also how in the case of contributesto, we have an additional rule called a 'triple' that matches secondary level contributions. (See the MyCreativity manual for more details.)

This is just one way you could model the parts of TOGAF and write rules in Southbeach to create checklists. This mapping of effects to meaning used to interpret the model in a specific way, this creativity meta-model, is important. Think about this - about how you want your rules and your model to interact - so you have a consistent way to generate creativity output from the model.

For example, the following script:

#Process
//Use extent extended
* "{selected}"
#Process.Inputs
contributesto(action, goal) " Inputs:"
contributesto(action, goal) " {source}"
contributesto(&a=action, &b=action) contributesto(&b,&c=goal) " |--{&a}"
#Process.Steps
produces(goal, action) " Steps:"
produces(goal, action) " {destination}"
#Process.Outputs
creates(goal,action) " Outputs:"
creates(goal, action) " {destination}"

Generates the following output when clicking on Phase A. Architecture Vision:
(This output appears in the MyCreativity window beneath the model when you have the plug-in - just right click in there and set extent to extended to make sure it generates all the secondary inputs).

A. Architecture Vision
  Inputs:
     Organizational Model for Enterprise Architecture
        |--* Governance and support strategy
        |--* Requests for change
        |--* Budget requirements
        |--* Re-use requirements
        |--* Constraints on architecture work
        |--* Roles and responsibilities for architecture team(s)
        |--* Maturity assessment, gaps, and resolution approach
        |--* Scope of organizations impacted
     Tailored Architecture Framework
        |--* Tailored architecture method
        |--* Tailored architecture content (deliverables and artifacts)
        |--* Architecture Principles, including business principles, when pre-existing
        |--* Configured and deployed tools
     Populated Architecture Repository
  Steps:
     * Define Scope
     * Develop Enterprise Architecture Plans and Statement of Architecture Work; Secure Approval
     * Identify the Business Transformation Risks and Mitigation Activities
     * Define the Target Architecture Value Propositions and KPIs
     * Develop Architecture Vision
     * Confirm and Elaborate Architecture Principles, including Business Principles
     * Assess Readiness for Business Transformation
     * Evaluate Business Capabilities
     * Confirm and Elaborate Business Goals, Business Drivers, and Constraints
     * Identify Stakeholders, Concerns, and Business Requirements
     * Establish the Architecture Project
  Outputs:
     # Additional content populating the Architecture Repository
     # Communications Plan
     Architecture Vision
     # Tailored Architecture Framework (for the engagement)
     # Capability Assessment
     # Architecture Principles
     # Refined statements of Business Principles, Business Goals, and Business Drivers
     Approved Statement of Architecture Work

and the following output when clicking on B. Business Architecture:

B. Business Architecture
   Inputs:
       # Approved Statement of Architecture Work
       # Architecture Principles, including business principles, when pre-existing
       # Enterprise Continuum
       # Architecture Repository
           |--* Re-usable building blocks
           |--* Publicly available reference models
           |--* Organization-specific reference models
           |--* Organization standards
           |--* Refined key high-level stakeholder requirements
           |--* Baseline Business Architecture, Version 0.1
           |--* Baseline Technology Architecture, Version 0.1
           |--* Baseline Data Architecture, Version 0.1
           |--* Baseline Application Architecture, Version 0.1
           |--* Target Business Architecture, Version 0.1
           |--* Target Technology Architecture, Version 0.1
           |--* Target Data Architecture, Version 0.1
           |--* Target Application Architecture, Version 0.1

You can create as many different rule sets as you like, use them interactively like this to help you think through your approach, or facilitate a project kick-off or review session, or audit an already running project. Southbeach modeller now has the ability to hide certain kinds of elements like actions (the blue boxes here), so you could build a very extensive model of a process that includes inputs, activities and outputs as here, whilst only showing the simple process steps on the screen and still having the creativity rules accessing the full richness of the model - but only showing it when you want to, when you click on the agents you are interested in.

Here is a screenshot of the application. The top left panel shows the models available in the explorer, below that is a list of creativity rule sets available for use with this model. The model is in the centre - with the action agents (blue boxes) hidden to keep the interface simple. On the right is the agent tab showing the description of the selected TOGAF phase, describing its objectives and approach. Beneath the model is the output of the creativity rules showing the inputs to that phase.



See southbeach-creativity.blogspot.com for more examples of how to use MyCreativity and some explanations of the different kinds of rules you can use to add creativity to Modeller. You can get the MyCreativity plug-in to Southbeach Modeller here.

Southbeach templates for your methodology

This model illustrates the questions to be asked, and the model templates to be developed, if one was starting out to develop a Southbeach 'kit' (set of abstract and 'starter' models) to support an existing methodology. The output of the exercise would be a set of Southbeach template models of two types:

1. Models to illustrate the approach, phases, steps and activities of the methodology itself. This would help communicate the methodology to the client and delivery team. They could be adapted for different engagements. Improvements gathered from each engagement would be integrated back into the master set.

2. Abstract models, to support the development of 'work products'.

An abstract models is effectively a 'visual check list' - which can be brought into a workshop, and, through model elaboration and changing the text of agents, converted to a specific model.

Policy Engineering and Process Improvement

This model shows how Southbeach can be used to model processes, in this case, describing the steps that might be taken in policy engineering. Once the basic steps in a process are captured, the blockers to and harmful side effects of those process steps can be added to the model. This then provides the basis for brainstorming how to overcome the blockers, or how to improve the process.

Action Oriented Southbeach Modelling

Using Southbeach to understand a situation is just the first step. Actions are necessary for change. This model provides one example of the steps you could take to be more action oriented with Southbeach.

Offshoring considerations - balancing cost and quality in transition

This model highlights what is considered by some to be a key focus of the transition to an offshore delivery model. It says:

Whilst offshoring reduces cost over time, there is inevitably an initial ramp up period that has the risk of creating quality issues and delays that counteract sales or services and hence impact profitability or cashflow. The knowledge transfer required to ensure quality and timeliness requires onshore delivery capability, sometimes perceived as high cost. This investment in the present must be balanced against the potential losses and gains of the future. The knowledge transfer and the management of this transition to a fully offshore model must be the initial focus of attention.

NHS culture opposed to Innovation?

This model was developed following lectures at the London School of Economics (LSE) - entitled "Innovating out of the Recession in the NHS". The speakers were Jim Easton, NHS National Director for Improvement and Efficiency, Dept of Health; Steve Barnett, Chief Executive, NHS Confederation and Prof. Patrick Dunleavy, LSE Public Policy Group. Mr. Easton is responsible for driving measureable improvements in service quality and productivity through the system. The meeting was chaired by Howard Glennerster, Prof. Emeritus of social administration at the LSE, holding various advisory positions to UK Government.

Despite significant funding and resource increases for the NHS over the last ten years, it has been insufficient to produce needed increases in productivity and quality. (dotted line). These are needed now to counter funding gap of £20B projected over the coming years. The theme of the lecture was the NHS culture and ethos which, it is claimed, is opposed to processes of innovation and change. Nothing less than a transformation is needed - gradual incremental downward pressure on prices and costs won't be enough. The cultural problem arises from a public ethos of mediocry, rather than excellence, and a passionate dislike and disinterest in service/process innovations over medical advances. Future models will focus on the interactions and root causes between culture and innovation.

Innovating out of Recession in the UK NHS

There is a lot of interest in public sector innovation, both here in UK, but also in the USA and in other major economies. The recession is forcing a hard look at funding, productivity and quality in service delivery - while maintaining clinical excellence. Last night, I attended a series of lectures at the London School of Economics (LSE) - entitled "Innovating out of the Recession in the NHS". The speakers were Jim Easton, NHS National Director for Improvement and Efficiency, Dept of Health; Steve Barnett, Chief Executive, NHS Confederation and Prof. Patrick Dunleavy, LSE Public Policy Group. Mr. Easton is responsible for driving measureable improvements in service quality and productivity through the system. The meeting was chaired by Howard Glennerster, Prof. Emeritus of social administration at the LSE, holding various advisory positions to UK Government.

I developed this Southbeach model (below) based on remarks which recurred throughout the sessions. I will be developing more models of the positions taken at the meeting. This model says:

The economic downturn has led to a £20B gap in funding. This reality, and the politics around it, will challenge NHS social principles unless there is a step change in productivity and quality. According to Jim Easton, incremental improvements will not achieve this, a transformation of the healthcare 'industry' is required (action). Only this can counteract the funding crisis and avoid much cherished principles being compromized. According to the speakers, a root cause is the NHS culture/ethos, which is harmful to the dissemination of innovations in service delivery, even if it does deliver clinical excellence and patient care. A major theory/reason stated for this is the harmful tension between national programs and local programs. This tension counteracts each of their contributions to the the dissemination of innovations, which are required, but insuffient (dotted line), for the productivity needed (scale up). At the same time, productivty can (questionably) lead to improved clinical practice, yet there is a sense in which silo clinical practice is counteracting productivity. There are unanswered questions here. Of course, if NHS principles are challenged the 'system' cannot counter the funding crisis with an appropriate step change in innovation, there will be a counteracting impact on the culture/ethos. In the model, this has been determined to be useful (green line) because the impact is directed to a harmful element (red box), the culture ... despite this having many useful qualities such as clinical excellence (green box). This illustrates the power of Southbeach to allow for the modeling and resolution of differing 'perspectives'.

An example method for developing Southbeach Notation Models

Whilst Southbeach Notation itself does not impose any methodology, it is sometimes useful to see how other people have been using it. This example is one way of assessing a situation, brainstorming improvement options, and establishing action plans involving the need to consult large numbers of people. It includes a very simple Southbeach model of a manufacturing firm by way of illustration. Several iterations of the model are shown to demonstrate how a model may be built up through structured questioning. At each stage, the new agents that are added to the model are highlighted in yellow.

Four phases of activity are described below:


More details on example activities and pointers for each phase are provided below:


Model the situation:

Identify & interview stake holders

What are the priority areas?
What are the goals?
What’s helps achieve the goals?
What are these dependent on?
What’s counteracting the goals?
What are the real issues?
What causes those issues?
What’s the root cause?
What other resources do we have?

Assess the differences in perspective
Break differences of opinion down into their parts to get to the issues
Agree what’s important and why, remove the rest

Cost, harmful, and considered a risk, counteracts Profit, which is useful and the goal of the firm. We keep this model deliberately trivial for the purposes of illustration and gradually expand on it below.

Tips

Don’t ask leading questions
Your opinion is irrelevant; Mine their knowledge
Watch body language; Ask pointed questions
Differentiate opinion or hearsay from fact
Seek corroborating evidence

What is most important? What are the goals and risks?
What is most useful? What is most harmful?
What led/is still leading to this situation?
What resources are available? What are the enablers?
What are the risks, blockers & constraints? How can we mitigate against them?
What is the ideal outcome?


Elaborate and refine the model
Who else should be consulted?
- Specialists?
- Customers?
- Suppliers?
- External experts?

What’s missing from the model? (stand on each block and ask...)
- What else does this produce?
- What else produces this?
- What else does this counteract?
- What else counteracts this?
- What are the enablers and positive forces for change?
- What are the blockers and inhibitors?

Here we look at what produces the Cost and Profit and what is counteracting them. Sales leads to Manufacturing, which generates both Revenue and Cost. The revenue contributes to the profit and the Cost counteracts it. The Profit is also counteracted by Corporation Tax.

Tips
Keep asking what causes this until you get to the root cause
See all sides of the argument
Decompose contradictions into their parts
- “Cut costs” + “Increase marketing budget” = ???
- - Choose between one or the other?
- - Move budget from elsewhere?
- - Improve marketing efficiency?
Remove unnecessary information
Differentiate hobby horses from the real issues
E.g. absence of something is not necessarily an issue – it could be the interviewee leaping to conclusions about what the solution is…. “The problem is we have no leadership”… or is it just that this person does not agree with the leadership?


Brainstorm Improvement Options

Each of the questions below targets a different creativity centre in the brain, and focusses on a different part of the problem in the system. Consider each question carefully and make sure to answer them specifically (e.g. consider the harmful effects of pollution: protect from harm (e.g. using a mask to avoid inhaling pollution) is quite different from reduce harm (e.g. using unleaded fuel), is quite different from reduce ability to produce harm (e.g. reduce engine size or speed limit), is quite different from prevent harm (e.g. pedestrianize the town centre), is quite different to avoid harm (e.g. don't go into the town, stay in the country).

Ask what could improve the situation?
- What are the enablers for this?
- What are the blockers and how can we overcome them?
Ask what could worsen the situation?
- How could we prevent this?
- What are the risk mitigations for this?

Increase usefulness
- Introduce more kinds or quantities of useful agents into the system
- Find a way for useful agents to last longer or be more efficient or effective
- Change agents somehow so they are more useful or have more uses
- Make more use of...
- Increase the ability to produce the useful, Find other ways to produce the useful
- Go to where the useful agents already exist or are available
- Find another way to get the useful that is not affected by the harm
- Find another way to get the useful that has not harmful side effects
Decrease harm
- Prevent harmful agents from coming into existence
- Remove harmful agents altogether
- Change agents somehow to decrease their harmfulness
- Reduce the ability to produce harm
- Protect useful agents from harm
- Avoid the harm

Improve
- Find a way to increase the usefulness without increasing the harm
- Find another way to get the usefulness that does not produce the harm
- Separate the conflicting behaviours or tensions
- - in time / space / by perception / condition
- - Transition to super-system / sub-system / alternate system / inverse system
Step back and consider alternatives
Move to the next generation of the system
Remove the need for the system

Here the ideas for improving the system are shown as blue boxes. Blue boxes are not yet part of the system being diagnosed, but rather, represent the recommendations arising from the analysis of the Southbeach Model of the system. Here Offshoring is designed to counteract Cost, as is Reduced Stock, which is achieved by implementing a Build to Order process. Sales are increased through additional Marketing activity.

What are the risks?
What are the external influences that could adversely affect us?
In what way might we be harming or harmed by the environment?

Here we examine what additional external factors may affect the system. Competitors, considered harmful, counteract Revenue. Warranty Activity contributes to Cost which erodes Profit. This causal chain is saying that both Competitors and Warranty Activity indirectly erode Profit, so we had better do something about it.

What can we do about those risks?
Can any of those harmful factors be turned to use?
How can we work in better harmony with the environment?

Research & Development is recommended here to identify Potential (dotted box) new Products that could counteract Competitors who do not have comparable products, giving us some of the market share that was previously with competitors, as well as directly increase Revenue by winning new customers attracted by this new Product. Continually asking 'what other benefits does this have?' yields R&D tax rebates which increases Profit further. Warranty Activity is reduced by an Improved Quality Assurance process. Note that the new process and products will have their own costs, which will erode profit. These are not shown here as they are a necessary part of the idea evaluation - the business case for each blue activity block - they are not a part of the system we are improving until those blue blocks are implemented.

Tips
Brainstorm improvement options, in the above categories, or directed in some other way
Collect improvement ideas
Group ideas together to create better ideas

Run professionally facilitated workshops
Use independent third parties who are not blinkered by history and have no bias
Consult experts as needed, from within the firm and outside
Use the wisdom of crowds – run virtual idea management campaigns using services from firms such as imaginatik.com
Consider what others in the market are doing

Consider the implications, what could the unforeseen consequences of your actions be? How can you protect against them? How can you make your solution last?

Planning Tips
What are the consequences of taking these actions, Useful and Harmful? (Impact analysis)
What preparatory steps should be taken?
What resources are available?
What other activities could our plan integrate with or leverage?
Consider what change management activity will be needed
How can we ensure adoption of the new solution?
Communicate and Educate far and wide
How can we ensure realisation of the benefits?
Consider planning in a benefits realisation phase
Establish metrics
Identify roles and responsibilities
Establish governance and necessary support or operational processes

Can the UK manage investment in its energy infrastructure to avoid future brownouts?

(Our thanks to technology and policy futurologist, Chris Yapp, for the inspiration to publish this example). Here is an example of the use of a Southbeach grid, to clarify the factors that could lead to powere brownouts in the UK. The model clarifies actions and plans in the present, and possible futures.

If we decommission coal and nuclear power stations on current dates and energy consumption rises this will increase the possibility of brownouts on a scale similar to New England a few years ago. This can be alleviated by extending the lives of these power stations till new capacity comes on board. That reduces the brownout risk at one level. However extending the life of power stations beyond their design limits risks unplanned outages which are harder to deal with. What lowers the risk on one timescale raises risk of a different nature on a different timescale.

But a question remains? What can cause new capacity to come onboard?



To get more insight from this model, we have added an agent to represent the intention (potential) to plan and prepare for building new power production capability. This 'thought' can exist in the present, and it is what brings new capacity onboard in the future.

If it does not occur (not realised) then the brownouts will occur if the decommisioning continues. If the plans don't come about, they do not counteract the life extension projects, and the life extension will therefore continue, with the risk of unplanned outage risks.

Both extending the life of stations, and planning for new build, are useful (green), but are in some kind of opposition (tension). Both cannot fully 'live' together - and it is this tension we would explore for further analysis as indicated in the model below.



There are therefore three risks to power in the UK:

Risk1: If new capacity does not come on board in the future, brownouts will not be counteracted.

Risk2: The surplus life extension will lead to unplanned outages.

Risk3: Planning intentions in tension with extending the lives of the existing power stations.

Further analysis would proceed by interviewing experts around the three causes of uncertainty - centred on the focal point: planning. Over time, models would become more detailed, and more compelling, and the root causes of uncertainty would be revealed. These models could then suggest directions for changing the situation.